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New England
LA Rams
Feb 3
6:30 PM ET
Gary Davenport
Gary Davenport 
An award-winning NFL and fantasy sports writer whose work has been featured on Bleacher Report, Rotoworld, The Athletic, USA Today, CNN and numerous other sites and nationally-circulated publications. Gary also appears regularly on both terrestrial and satellite radio and has a weekly spot on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio.
56.4% All Time
56.4% NFL

It’s Christmas for sports bettors in the United States—the Super Bowl is here. The NFC’s participant in Super Bowl LIII is the Los Angeles Rams, who in case you hadn’t heard won the NFC title game in overtime in controversial fashion over the New Orleans Saints. At this point, how the Rams got to Atlanta really doesn’t matter. They’re there—with a high-octane offense and a defense that features reigning Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald.

The AFC is represented by the New England Patriots—because the AFC is always represented by the New England Patriots. After opening overtime of the AFC Championship Game with a methodical touchdown drive, the Patriots are playing in a jaw-dropping ninth Super Bowl with Tom Brady at quarterback. It’s really quite gross.

You don’t need me to tell you that after the Rams opened as slight favorites a flood of action on the Pats shoved the line the other way in minutes. The Patriots are currently 2.5-point favorites, but given the percentage of bets on New England that line may move to -3 as we near gameday.

The money has also been heavy on the Under. The total for Super Bowl LIII opened at a record-high of 58, but it has fallen a full two points at some books and may drop more still. At any rate, you probably either already have money wagered against the spread and total already anyway. Or you’re waiting for one last bit of movement on the line before pouncing. Either way, there’s no shortage of folks here at Sports Bet Collective with advice in that regard.

We’re going in a different direction here, with some action within the action. Cash on the side. Prop Bets.

The Pick: COIN RAMS (-105) via Bovada
For the record, these are all based in some way on the game itself. None of that wagering on the commercials here. I’m a civilized degenerate.

OK, maybe I’m not that civilized. I’m offering advice about betting on the actual flip of a coin. Don’t judge me.

The thing is, I’m not just pulling this pick out of the ether. We know a few things about the Super Bowl coin toss. We know that the Patriots, as the away team, will make the call. We know that the Patriots historically have called heads; much more often than tails. Yes, people track these things.

We also know that New England’s record in the Super Bowl is a lot better than its record in the coin tosses that start them off. Tails Never Fails.
The Pick: GRONK RECEPTIONS (UNDER 4.5) via Bovada
We could be witnessing the end of an era Sunday. After an underwhelming season in which he managed just 47 catches and three scores, and with retirement rumors swirling around him, this could be the end of the line for Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. It’s been quite the ride.

However, folks expecting Gronk to go out in a blaze of glory are setting themselves up to be disappointed. The reality is that at this point in his career, Gronk isn’t the dominant downfield threat he once was. That hasn’t been where his value to the Patriots has been in 2018. Where Gronk has shined this year has been as a mauling run blocker. Gronkowski did have six catches for 79 yards against the Chiefs.

But in the Divisional Round against the Chargers (a team with an actual defense), Gronkowski caught just one ball. In 11 of the 15 games he has played in in 2018, Gronkowski’s been limited to four or fewer receptions.

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